Why I’m not too concerned about the latest Marquette Poll

Results indicate that Burke remains relatively unknown, and could still be a strong challenger to Scott Walker...who is losing his base support

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Fast facts:

• If more “unsure” liberals express a willingness to vote for Mary Burke, poll results become much closer (44 percent for Burke to Scott Walker’s 48 percent, if going by the rate of the recall election).
• A substantial size of Walker’s core base is showing support for Mary Burke -- nearly 30 percent of conservatives say they would vote for the Democratic challenger.

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Recent polling from the Marquette Law School shows that Mary Burke is still behind Scott Walker in the governor’s race. Burke trails Walker by 41 percent to 48 percent, respectively, in polling that was conducted late last month.

With seven months until the actual election, some on the left are sounding the alarms, while many on the right are ringing bells of victory. Those celebrations by the right are premature, however, because Burke remains a relatively unknown name.

Indeed, Charles Franklin, the director of the Marquette Poll, has stated that we haven’t yet hit the full extent of the campaign by any means, and that it’s too early to determine the attitudes of voters in November through a poll conducted in March.

Franklin added that even though advertising has begun in some areas, particularly outside the Milwaukee and Madison media markets, “what’s missing at this point though is the full-blown campaign statewide.”

“As we go in the next few months, there’s no question we’re going to start to see that (advertising) permeate the entire state,” he said.

Expect a closer race as more liberals start to support Burke

I’m skeptical of the wide margin for similar reasons. While there is a large contingent of voters who are of the “anyone but Walker” bloc, there are others who want to hear more from Burke before making a concrete opinion on her as a candidate.

Taking a closer look at the Marquette Poll’s “crosstabs” (.zip file) -- the nuts and bolts of the poll that shows how certain segments of people voiced their opinions on questions held within -- shows that Mary Burke’s favorability rating remains relatively low even among liberals in Wisconsin. Only 34 percent of self-identified “liberals” and just under half of those who call themselves “very liberal” gave Burke positive ratings, with 57 percent of all liberals stating they haven’t heard enough about her to form an opinion.

Indeed, only 73.8 percent of liberal/very liberal respondents said that they would vote for Burke if the election were held today. That number is well below the 86 percent of liberals that voted for Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett in the 2012 recall election.

If 86 percent of liberals in Marquette’s latest poll had selected Burke (rather than the 73 percent of support she received), it would make the poll much closer -- around 44 percent for Burke to 48 percent for Walker.

Walker is losing his base’s support

What the media hasn’t focused on, however, is how much conservative support Walker has actually lost to his opponent. Nearly seven out of every 25 self-identified conservatives (close to 30 percent of those on the right in the state) have stated that they would vote for Burke if the election were held today.

Where Burke can laugh off name recognition as a reason why her numbers may be low, Walker has a serious problem. It’s not as if the people of Wisconsin don’t know who he is. If a sizable chunk of his voting bloc is showing signs of wavering, come November his re-election chances may be slimmer than once thought.

Here’s another sign of optimism for liberals in this and future elections: support for the Tea Party has been cut considerably. While 2012 recall election exit polls showed 36 percent of Wisconsinites “supported” the movement, only 21 percent of Marquette Poll respondents held a “favorable” view of the Tea Party this year. More than 45 percent held an unfavorable view of the Tea Party in 2014, an increase of 11 percent from two years ago.

Walker is losing other areas of support he held in the 2012 recall. White voters, 56 percent who voted for Walker in 2012, are less supportive of him today, with barely 50 percent saying they’d vote for the governor today. And while 59 percent of men said they voted for Walker in 2012, only 52 percent said they’d vote for him if the election were held now.

This race will be considerably closer than reports are indicating

It all comes down to this: will this be a contentious race, or is it going to be a landslide for Walker? Burke is low on support from liberals at the moment, but as the race gets closer to the election, she’s bound to garner at least 80 to 90 percent of the progressive base. Walker, on the other hand, is losing his base, which is curiously supporting Mary Burke at this time. That may change in a few months, but it’s interesting nonetheless, especially since the governor has the name recognition that his challenger does not.